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Abstract Alternative ecological theories make divergent predictions about the relationship between predators and their prey. If predators exert top‐down ecosystem control, increases in predation should diminish prey abundance and could either diminish or enhance community diversity of prey species. However, if bottom‐up ecosystem controls predominate, predator populations should track underlying variation in prey diversity and abundance, which ultimately should reflect available energy. Past research, both across islands and comparing islands with the mainland, has frequently invoked the importance of predation in regulating lizard abundance and diversity, suggesting an important role of top‐down control when predators are present. However, others have posited a stronger role of food limitation, via competition or bottom‐up forces. If top‐down control predominates, then negative correlations between prey abundance and predator occurrence should emerge within and among islands. Using data from eBird, we inferred landscape‐level presence data for bird species on the islands of Jamaica and Hispaniola. By summing occurrence probabilities of all known anole‐predator birds, we estimated total avian predation pressure and combined these estimates with anole community data from a mark‐recapture study that spanned spatial and climatic gradients on both islands. Avian predators and anole lizards were both affected by climate, with total predator occurrence, anole abundance and anole species richness increasing with mean annual temperature. Anole abundance and predator occurrence showed a curvilinear relationship, where abundance and predator occurrence increased together until predator occurrence became sufficiently high that anole abundance was negatively impacted. This indicates that bottom‐up ecosystem controls drive richness of both anoles and their predators, mitigating the negative effects predators might have on their prey, at least until predator occurrence reaches a threshold. We did not detect consistent evidence of predator occurrence reducing anole community richness. These findings support past research showing that islands with more predators tend to have lower prey abundances, but it does not seem that these top‐down forces are strongly limiting species coexistence. Instead, bottom‐up forces linked with climate may be more important drivers of diversity in both lizards and their avian predators on these islands. 

ABSTRACT As rising temperatures threaten biodiversity across the globe, tropical ectotherms are thought to be particularly vulnerable due to their narrow thermal tolerance ranges. Nevertheless, physiology-based models highlighting the vulnerability of tropical organisms rarely consider the contributions of their gut microbiota, even though microbiomes influence numerous host traits, including thermal tolerance. We combined field and lab experiments to understand the response of the slender anole lizard ( Anolis apletophallus ) gut microbiome to climatic shifts of various magnitude and duration. First, to examine the effects of long-term climate warming in the wild, we transplanted lizards from the mainland Panama to a series of warmer islands in the Panama Canal and compared their gut microbiome compositions after three generations of divergence. Next, we mimicked the effects of a short-term “heat-wave” by using a greenhouse experiment and explored the link between gut microbiome composition and lizard thermal physiology. Finally, we examined variation in gut microbiomes in our mainland population in the years both before and after a naturally occurring drought. Our results suggest that slender anole microbiomes are surprisingly resilient to short-term warming. However, both the taxonomic and predicted functional compositions of the gut microbiome varied by sampling year across all sites, suggesting that the drought may have had a regional effect. We provide evidence that short-term heat waves may not substantially affect the gut microbiota, while more sustained climate anomalies may have effects at broad geographic scales. IMPORTANCE As climate change progresses, it is crucial to understand how animals will respond to shifts in their local environments. One component of this response involves changes in the microbial communities living in and on host organisms. These “microbiomes” can affect many processes that contribute to host health and survival, yet few studies have measured changes in the microbiomes of wild organisms experiencing novel climatic conditions. We examined the effects of shifting climates on the gut microbiome of the slender anole lizard ( Anolis apletophallus ) by using a combination of field and laboratory studies, including transplants to warm islands in the Panama Canal. We found that slender anole microbiomes remain stable in response to short-term warming but may be sensitive to sustained climate anomalies, such as droughts. We discuss the significance of these findings for a species that is considered highly vulnerable to climate change.